Connor Leahy from Conjecture joins the podcast to discuss AI progress, chimps, memes, and markets. Learn more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Defining artificial general intelligence 04:52 What makes humans more powerful than chimps? 17:23 Would AIs have to be social to be intelligent? 20:29 Importing humanity's memes into AIs 23:07 How do we measure progress in AI? 42:39 Gut feelings about AI progress 47:29 Connor's predictions about AGI 52:44 Is predicting AGI soon betting against the market? 57:43 How accurate are prediction markets about AGI?
Luke Drago discusses the potential societal and economic impacts of AI dominance, including changes in workplace structures, privacy concerns, and the importance of taking career risks during technological transitions.
Basil Halperin discusses how financial markets and economic indicators, such as interest rates, can provide insights into AI development timelines and the potential economic impact of transformative AI.
Benjamin Todd discusses the evolution of reasoning models in AI, potential bottlenecks in compute and robotics, and offers advice on personal preparation for AGI, including skills, networks, and resilience, with projections through 2030.
