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Show Notes
Right before civil war broke out in 2011, Syria experienced a historic five-year drought. This particular drought, which exacerbated economic and political insecurity within the country, may or may not have been caused by climate change. But as climate change increases the frequency of such extreme events, it’s almost certain to inflame pre-existing tensions in other countries — and in some cases, to trigger armed conflict. On Not Cool episode 22, Ariel is joined by Cullen Hendrix, co-author of “Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.” Cullen, who serves as Director of the Sié Chéou-Kang Center for International Security and Diplomacy and Senior Research Advisor at the Center for Climate & Security, explains the main drivers of conflict and the impact that climate change may have on them. He also discusses the role of climate change in current conflicts like those in Syria, Yemen, and northern Nigeria; the political implications of such conflicts for Europe and other developed regions; and the chance that climate change might ultimately foster cooperation.
Topics discussed include:
- 4 major drivers of conflict
- Yemeni & Syrian civil wars
- Boko Haram conflict
- Arab Spring
- Decline in predictability of at-risk countries:
- Instability in South/central America
- Climate-driven migration
- International conflict
- Implications for developing vs. developed countries
- Impact of Syrian civil war/migrant crisis on EU
- Backlash in domestic European politics
- Brexit
- Dealing with uncertainty
- Actionable steps for governments
References discussed include:
Climate change is in effect loading the dice. So it's making certain rare outcomes like armed conflict a little bit more likely to occur in a variety of contexts, with the most significant impacts on societies at lower levels of economic development, higher levels of dependence on agricultural livelihoods, and characterized by weaker state institutions and high levels of intergroup inequality.
~ Cullen Hendrix
