Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02:09 Forecasting transformative AI 02:53 Historical growth rates 05:10 Simpler forecasting methods 09:01 Biological anchors 16:31 Different paths to transformative AI 17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI? 25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI 30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough? 33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation? 38:15 Will AI be limited by training data? 41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn? 47:22 The next episode
Researcher Oly Sourbut discusses how AI tools might strengthen human reasoning, from fact-checking and scenario planning to honest AI standards and better coordination, and explores how to keep humans central while building trustworthy, society-wide sensemaking.
Technical specialist Nora Ammann of the UK's ARIA discusses how to steer a slow AI takeoff toward resilient, cooperative futures, covering risks from rogue AI and competition to scalable oversight, formal guarantees, secure infrastructure, and AI-supported bargaining.
Maya Ackerman discusses human and machine creativity, exploring its definition, how AI alignment impacts it, and the role of hallucination. The conversation also covers strategies for human-AI collaboration.
