Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02:09 Forecasting transformative AI 02:53 Historical growth rates 05:10 Simpler forecasting methods 09:01 Biological anchors 16:31 Different paths to transformative AI 17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI? 25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI 30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough? 33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation? 38:15 Will AI be limited by training data? 41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn? 47:22 The next episode
Luke Drago discusses the potential societal and economic impacts of AI dominance, including changes in workplace structures, privacy concerns, and the importance of taking career risks during technological transitions.
Basil Halperin discusses how financial markets and economic indicators, such as interest rates, can provide insights into AI development timelines and the potential economic impact of transformative AI.
Benjamin Todd discusses the evolution of reasoning models in AI, potential bottlenecks in compute and robotics, and offers advice on personal preparation for AGI, including skills, networks, and resilience, with projections through 2030.
