Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Ajeya's report on AI 01:16 What is transformative AI? 02:09 Forecasting transformative AI 02:53 Historical growth rates 05:10 Simpler forecasting methods 09:01 Biological anchors 16:31 Different paths to transformative AI 17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI? 25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI 30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough? 33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation? 38:15 Will AI be limited by training data? 41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn? 47:22 The next episode
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Adam Gleave, CEO of FAR.AI, discusses post-AGI scenarios, risks of gradual disempowerment, defense-in-depth safety strategies, scalable oversight for AI deception, and the challenges of interpretability, as well as FAR.AI's integrated research and policy work.
Beatrice Erkers discusses the AI pathways project, focusing on approaches to maintain human oversight and control over AI, including tool AI and decentralized development, and examines trade-offs and strategies for safer AI futures.
