Connor Leahy from Conjecture joins the podcast to discuss AI progress, chimps, memes, and markets. Learn more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Defining artificial general intelligence 04:52 What makes humans more powerful than chimps? 17:23 Would AIs have to be social to be intelligent? 20:29 Importing humanity's memes into AIs 23:07 How do we measure progress in AI? 42:39 Gut feelings about AI progress 47:29 Connor's predictions about AGI 52:44 Is predicting AGI soon betting against the market? 57:43 How accurate are prediction markets about AGI?
Ryan Kidd of the MATS program joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss AGI timelines, model deception risks, dual-use alignment, and frontier lab governance, and outlines MATS research tracks, talent needs, and advice for aspiring AI safety researchers.
Researcher Oly Sourbut discusses how AI tools might strengthen human reasoning, from fact-checking and scenario planning to honest AI standards and better coordination, and explores how to keep humans central while building trustworthy, society-wide sensemaking.
Technical specialist Nora Ammann of the UK's ARIA discusses how to steer a slow AI takeoff toward resilient, cooperative futures, covering risks from rogue AI and competition to scalable oversight, formal guarantees, secure infrastructure, and AI-supported bargaining.
